20-21

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Feb 8, 2021

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Since last Wednesday the mountains near Bozeman and Big Sky got 3-4 feet of snow equal to 2.5-3.5” of snow water equivalent (SWE), which is more than what they got in all of January (and most of December). Yesterday there were natural avalanches on the west side of Saddle Peak (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24129">info</a></strong&gt;), and another on Cedar Mountain (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24135">photo</a></strong&gt;). Skiers in Beehive triggered a small test slope that produced a relatively very large slab avalanche (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24127">photos</a></strong&gt;). Ski patrols at the Yellowstone Club and Big Sky triggered very large avalanches on deep buried weak layers, and saw wide natural avalanches on road cuts (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24136">photos</a></strong&gt;). The list of avalanches, and widespread collapsing over the last four days is extensive (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/weather/wx-avalanche-log">weather and avalanche log</a>). Many avalanches broke deep and wide on sugary, buried weak layers.</p>

<p>Yesterday Doug looked at the snowpack outside of Bridger Bowl’s boundary. As he explains in his <strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeU_7Q_hhDI&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH…; even when it stops snowing we will be still able to trigger large avalanches for days. Wind is continuing to drift recent low-density snow into thick slabs on top of a very weak snowpack. Today very dangerous avalanche conditions exist, and danger is HIGH on wind-loaded slopes and CONSIDERABLE on all other steep slopes. Avoid travel on and underneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees.</p>

<p>Since Wednesday the mountains near Cooke City received 3-4 feet of snow equal to 2.9” of SWE. The last couple days moderate to strong west-northwest wind drifted the snow into thicker slabs. These can avalanche and will be large enough to bury or injure a person, and could break deeper on buried weak layers (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1BY8bb327k&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH…; from Friday</strong></u>). Yesterday a skier saw natural avalanches on the drive through Yellowstone Park (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24139">photos</a></strong&gt;). On Friday a skier triggered and was partially buried in an avalanche near Hayden Creek (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24075"><strong>photo and details</strong></a>). This recent heavy snowfall creates dangerous avalanche conditions. With a few more inches of snow and continued wind today natural and human triggered avalanches are likely, especially on wind loaded slopes. The avalanche danger is HIGH on wind-loaded slopes and CONSIDERABLE on all other slopes. Avoid travel on and underneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees</p>

<p>Since Wednesday the mountains near West Yellowstone received 2 feet of snow equal to 2.1” SWE, with no measurable snow since yesterday morning. Human triggered avalanches are likely and will be large enough to kill. On Saturday near Lionhead Ridge a snowmobiler triggered an avalanche that broke wide, and luckily nobody was caught (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24111"><strong>photo</strong></a&gt;). Weak, sugary snow buried 3-4 feet deep is slow to gain strength, and it can collapse under the weight of a person, and break wide across slopes (<a href="https://youtu.be/CI0HFvtLrf4"><strong>Lionhead video</strong></a>). Today, very careful route finding and conservative terrain selection are essential. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong>website<…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong></a…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Deadliest week for avalanche fatalities in U.S. since 1910

Since last Sunday there were 15 avalanche fatalities in the U.S. The most in one week in the U.S. since 1910 (NYT article). On Saturday in Utah, 8 skiers were caught and 4 were killed. Three events in the last week involved multiple burials and deaths. Our deepest condolences go out to the family and friends of those involved in all the recent events.

Natural new snow slabs in YNP near Cooke

Other place
Out of Advisory Area
Code
SS-N-R2-D2
Elevation
8500
Aspect Range
N,S,E
Latitude
45.65530
Longitude
-110.55800
Notes

These slides were observed in Yellowstone National Park on 2/7/21.

Number of slides
3
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
2
D size
2
Problem Type
New Snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Large explosive triggered, and naturals on road cuts, at Y.C.

Yellowstone Club
Northern Madison
Code
HS-AEc-R5-D3-O
Latitude
45.23110
Longitude
-111.44100
Notes

From YCSP: "We’ve had more snow and SWE in the past 5 days than we had in all of January. Avalanche mitigation today produced avalanches running full path at the new snow/old snow interface for most of our paths.... Some of our lower ridge avalanche terrain climaxed for the 2nd time this season. Our first round of mitigation got a few paths to climax, but the teams didn’t feel confident with the initial results.... They went back out with more explosives and were able to produce an avalanche that ran 400’ wide, with a 6-10’ crown, running close to the ground. This is wind loaded terrain. It’s also perhaps the largest crown I’ve seen on these paths and one of the few times I’ve seen it climax more than once.

I took a drive at the end of the day and captured a few photos of road cuts at the YC that slid today."

Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Hard slab avalanche
Trigger
An explosive thrown or placed on or under the snow surface by hand
Trigger Modifier
c-A controlled or intentional release by the indicated trigger
R size
5
D size
3
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Problem Type
Persistent Weak Layer
Slab Thickness
72.0 inches
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Natural avalanche on Cedar Mtn.

Cedar Mtn.
Northern Madison
Code
U-N-R2-D2-U
Aspect
E
Latitude
45.22680
Longitude
-111.51200
Notes

A patroller a the YC saw a s slide on some of Cedar Mountain’s lower east facing terrain on 2/7/21.

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Unknown
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
2
D size
2
Bed Surface
U - Unknown
Vertical Fall
200ft
Slab Width
100.00ft
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year