20-21

<p>Wet snow and deeply buried weak layers are the two primary concerns today.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Yesterday, we got several reports of small slab avalanches breaking on low elevation sunny slopes, both skier triggered and breaking naturally (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/gallatin-canyon-wet-slide"><stron…;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/specimen-creek-avalanche"><strong…;). While these slides weren’t very large, they indicate that the potential exists for larger slides. Watch out for wet snow as the day warms up and crusts break down. Particularly watch for sunny low elevation slopes that are sheltered from the cooling effects of today’s strong winds. If it ends up raining more than a light drizzle this afternoon, just avoid all steep slopes. Rain is an abrupt change that can quickly make slopes unstable, particularly when it’s falling onto a previously dry snowpack. If you find more than a couple inches of wet snow, move to shadier slopes or head home.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The weak snow near the ground that we’ve been warning you about all year is still down there and it is still worrisome. The consequences of triggering a slide remain high and require continued vigilance. Don’t let yourself be lured into a false sense of security because the frequency of slides is going down. It remains possible to trigger large, dangerous avalanches on these weak layers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The avalanche danger is MODERATE.</p>

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<p>Large avalanches are unlikely in the mountains around Cooke City. However, that doesn’t mean you can turn off your avalanche brain. Be on the lookout for wet snow on sunny slopes as the day warms up and check to make sure you aren’t on a slope that has the isolated weak layers at the ground before committing to steep terrain. The recent avalanche that broke 3-4 ft deep on weak layers at the ground in Yellowstone National Park, outside our advisory area, is a good reminder to stay on your toes (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24530"><strong><u>details</u></strong>…;). The avalanche danger is LOW in the mountains near Cooke City.&nbsp;</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong><u>websi…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong><u>mtavalanche@gmail.com</u></str…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

<p>It will certainly feel like spring today, with sunny skies and temperatures rising a couple degrees higher than yesterday, but for the lower snowpack it is still solidly winter. The weak layers at the ground remain our primary concern. This week’s dry spell has given these layers a break from loading and the chance of triggering a slide is slowly decreasing. The problem is that while the likelihood is going down, the consequences of triggering a slide stay high and avalanches on this sort of weak layer (depth hoar) are sometimes triggered days after they’ve last been loaded (<a href="https://youtu.be/sEjcbv4AWYQ"><strong><u>Low Probability, High Consequences video</u></strong></a>). If an avalanche breaks, it will likely break deeply, taking out the whole season’s snowpack in a large and dangerous slide. The human triggered slides in Red Canyon and Buck Ridge last weekend provide good examples of this concern (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24472"><strong><u>Red Canyon video</u></strong></a>,<strong> </strong><a href="https://youtu.be/8JxETara_7o"><strong><u>Buck Ridge video</u></strong></a>). Stay diligent and remain conservative in your terrain choices.</p>

<p>The snow surface is likely to get a little bit wet this afternoon, especially on sunny slopes at lower elevations. Small, loose wet avalanches could release naturally or be triggered by a skier or rider. Watch for crusts breaking down and places where the snow surface is getting wet for the first time. These slides are unlikely to be large but are still worth your consideration as the day heats up.</p>

<p>From Bozeman to Big Sky and south to West Yellowstone, the avalanche danger is MODERATE.</p>

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<p>The snowpack around Cooke City is mostly stable because it lacks widespread weak layers. However, yesterday, a recent avalanche that broke 3-4 ft deep on weak layers at the ground was seen just west of Cooke City, outside of our advisory area, in the generally shallower snowpack of Yellowstone National Park (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/24530"><strong><u>details</u></strong>…;). This is a good reminder to remain diligent in case you find one of those isolated slopes that harbors weak snow at the ground. Also keep an eye out for pockets of unstable wind drifts or particularly warm and sunny slopes where you could trigger a small wet loose slide. Large avalanches are unlikely and the avalanche danger is LOW in the mountains near Cooke City.&nbsp;</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong><u>websi…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong><u>mtavalanche@gmail.com</u></str…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

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