Good Morning. This is Doug Chabot with the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Advisory issued on Tuesday, January 9th at 6:45 a.m. Today’s advisory is sponsored by Community Food Co-op and Yellowstone Club Community Foundation. This advisory does not apply to operating ski areas.
At 5 a.m. mountain temperatures are in the 20s with southwest winds (west in the Bridger Range) averaging 10-20 mph, gusting 35-45 mph. Today, a moist southwest flow will bring snow and winds of 20-30 mph with mountain temperatures hovering near 20F. The storm will arrive this morning around Lionhead and slowly move north throughout the day. By tomorrow morning the mountains around West Yellowstone will have 6-8” of new snow with 4-6” elsewhere.
From Big Sky to West Yellowstone and Cooke City the snowpack is gaining strength at different rates. Yesterday, snowmobile guides found instability in their tests in Teepee Creek in the southern Madison Range when faceted snow broke clean 2’ deep (photo). In the northern Madison Range we have reports of stable snow, most notably in Beehive Basin, yet on Sunday on Buck Ridge, Alex had a mixed bag with one pit stable and another not (video), while nearby, a skier on Cinnamon Mountain had collapses in a shallow snowpack. Cooke City has the deepest snow and largest avalanches last week, some 4’ deep (photo). Skiers were still getting collapses there on Saturday and it’s not out of the question to get another today. Think of collapses as avalanches on flat terrain; these are major red flags.
The Lionhead area near West Yellowstone has the weakest and thinnest snowpack in our advisory area and will not withstand a punishing storm. Just a little weight, such as 1"of snow water equivalent, could tip the scales and create dangerous avalanche conditions. A week ago I had lots of collapsing, cracking and poor stability test scores above Hebgen Lake on a layer of facets 2’ deep (video, pit profile). I expect today will not be as reactive, but I know better than to trust the poor structure holding the weight of much new snow. Eric and I are headed to Lionhead today since this area concerns us the most with the approaching storm.
For today, stay out of avalanche terrain if you get collapsing, cracking or poor test scores. Avalanches are still possible and the danger is rated MODERATE. If the storm arrives as predicted, around West Yellowstone the avalanche danger will rise with new snow and wind.
Skiers and climbers are reporting good conditions which is similar Alex’s assessment from Saturday on Mount Blackmore (video). Although avalanches are unlikely, they are not impossible on slopes that are shallower. For example, on Sunday, skiers on Divide Peak backed off a thinly covered slope when they got facets breaking under an ice crust 1.5’ deep in their stability test. I love hearing stories like this, because digging saves lives. For today, avalanches are unlikely and the danger is rated LOW.
If you get out and have any avalanche or snowpack observations to share, drop a line via our website, email (mtavalanche@gmail.com), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).
Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events
BOZEMAN
TONIGHT, Jan. 9, Women’s Avalanche Awareness and Beacon Clinic, 6-8 p.m. at Beall Park
Jan. 12 and 13, Companion Rescue Clinic, Info and Register
Jan. 15, Avalanche Awareness, 6-7 p.m. at Yellowstone Motorsports
Jan. 17, 18 and 20 or 21, Introduction to Avalanches w/ Field Day, Info and Register Here
Jan. 24, 25 and 27, Advanced Avalanche Workshop w. Field Day, Info and Register Here
Feb. 9 and 10, Companion Rescue Clinic, Info and Register
WEST YELLOWSTONE
Jan. 20, Avalanche Awareness, 7-8 p.m. at West Yellowstone Holiday Inn Conference Center
BIG TIMBER
Jan. 11, Avalanche Awareness, 6-7 p.m. at Sweet Grass County High School
BUTTE
Jan. 13, Rescue Clinic, 10 a.m. at Homestake Lodge
Dillon
Jan. 16, Avalanche Awareness, 6:30-8 p.m. at U.M. Western Library
COOKE CITY
Every Friday and Saturday, Current Conditions Update and Avalanche Rescue, Friday 6:30-7:30 p.m. at The Antler's Lodge in January. Saturday anytime between 10-2 @ Round Lake.
Here is a powerful and moving interview with Lesley Martin about her 105 minute burial in Frenchman Creek, Idaho on February 16, 2014, which killed her husband, George. Video: https://vimeo.com/channels/mountainoutlaw/245046506