20-21

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Thu Jan 14, 2021

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>In the last 48 hours the mountains around Bozeman and Big Sky got 3”, Taylor Fork 4” and 8” outside West Yellowstone. Yesterday’s gale-force wind scoured ridgetops and loaded slopes at all elevations and aspects. Snow was redistributed with no predictable pattern. The snowpack is weak and the recent snowfall and wind-loading has made it unstable. Again yesterday, facets at the ground were breaking on low-angled terrain with whumpfs and cracks (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/cracking-s-gallatin"><strong><u>S. Gallatin</u></strong></a>, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23770"><strong><u>N. Madison</u></strong></a>). On steeper slopes a large avalanche was seen on the east side of Lionhead Ridge (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/lionhead-ridge-avalanche"><strong…;), which is on the heels of a dozen avalanches my partner and I noted on Tuesday (<a href="https://youtu.be/Feyz2_4aNmU"><strong><u>video</u></strong></a&gt;).&nbsp; Furthermore, the Bridger Bowl Ski Patrol saw 2 fresh slides on the west side of the Bridger Range in Bostwick and Truman Gulch yesterday (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23771"><strong><u>details</u></strong>…;).</p>

<p>Avoid avalanche terrain today. Evidence continues to show that new snow, even a few inches, has a nasty habit of avalanching. Yesterday’s wind gave the mountains a villainous beating. New drifts are packed densely and will crack and avalanche. Triggering avalanches below or adjacent to a steep slope is possible, just as the skiers in Flanders Creek found on Saturday (if you haven’t seen the <a href="https://youtu.be/Tp5A5YRd43E"><strong><u>video</u></strong></a&gt;, you need to). Dave explains a rationale for sticking to low-angeled powder in his <a href="https://youtu.be/XzPIY1Q1cKo"><strong><u>video</u></strong></a&gt; at Bacon Rind. For today, the avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on all slopes since triggering slides is likely.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p>Yesterday’s snowfall buried a layer of <a href="https://avalanche.org/avalanche-encyclopedia/surface-hoar/"><strong><u>… hoar</u></strong></a> (large feathers of snow) that is a notorious weak layer. We will be digging and searching for this layer as we get more snow in the coming weeks, and you should too.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The mountains around Cooke City got 10” yesterday and 3” the day before (1.2” <a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/null/?cid=nrcseprd1314… water equivalent</u></a>). Our concerns involve instabilities in the top 3’ of the snowpack:</p>

<ol>
<li>Recent wind drifts,</li>
<li>A weak layer of surface hoar that just got buried,</li>
<li>A layer of weak, faceted snow 2-3’ deep has been triggered on some slopes.&nbsp;</li>
</ol>

<p>The snowpack has gotten more complex and requires digging and testing to determine its stability. Given the new snow, strong wind and buried weak layers, slopes will be reactive to triggering. Stay out of avalanche terrain and be vigilant since a new weak layer of surface hoar was buried. It will take time to get a sense of its distribution, but for now we assume it is everywhere. For today the avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on all slopes.&nbsp;</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong><u>websi…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong><u>mtavalanche@gmail.com</u></str…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

See our education calendar for an up-to-date list of all local classes. Here are a few select upcoming events and opportunities to check out:

Collapsing, cacking, whumpfs in S. Gallatin

SOUTHERN GALLATIN RANGE
Southern Gallatin
Code
Latitude
45.04320
Longitude
-110.96200
Notes

"Cracking, collapsing, wumphs in the Southern Gallatin. ECTP 22. West facing, 8200’ non windloaded, 80cm of snow. Broke 50cm deep on de depth hoar Barely a cohesive sl slab n top but still enough to cause unstable conditions."

Number of slides
0
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Red Flag
Advisory Year

Natural avalanches on West side of Bridgers

Bostwick Creek
Bridger Range
Code
SS-N
Aspect
W
Latitude
45.79760
Longitude
-110.93800
Notes

From the Bridger Bowl Ski Patrol:

Natural avalanche activity was seen on the Cornice below the Y on Bostwick Drainage and behind the Poma lift in Truman Gulch.

Number of slides
2
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Near Mt. Wilson -- shooting cracks, whumpfing

Wilson Peak
Northern Madison
Code
Latitude
45.28440
Longitude
-111.32800
Notes

"Upside-down snowpack, with a ~1ft strong layer on top of a few inches of weak snow. Significant shooting cracks and whoomphing in areas with deep snow. There was comparatively little snow in the trees -- not enough to cause avalanche concerns. We stayed off high-angle slopes, because of the clear signs of avalanche danger, and the very warm temps."

Number of slides
0
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Red Flag
Advisory Year

Lionhead Ridge natural avalanche

Lionhead Ridge
Lionhead Range
Code
SS-N-R2-D1.5-O
Aspect
E
Latitude
44.71450
Longitude
-111.31800
Notes

This natural avalanche likely releaed fron the new snow (about .5" SWE) and strong winds during the day.

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
2
D size
1.5
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year